The 2020 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

First blood, fresh blood, and poor blood: That is this week’s narrative in the presidential race.
Begin with blood. This afternoon in California, Representative Eric Swalwell finished his race for the Democratic nomination, shocking news for many Americans who had no idea that he had been running in the first location. Swalwell will seek reelection to the U.S. House instead. He is the first candidate to exit the busy race.
Swalwell’s effort was quixotic from the start, but unlike Cervantes’s hero, he never really journeyed anywhere. Swalwell was not able to build much name recognition, even though managing to be eligible for the first Democratic debate in June. His most prominent moment came early in the second night of that argument, when he challenged Joe Biden to hand off the torch to a younger generation. Biden laughed Swalwell off; Kamala Harris delivered the punch that Swalwell was expecting to land on the former vice president; and Swalwell more or less disappeared, ending up with the second-least amount of speaking time of the night, before just Andrew Yang. He was in danger of not making the second debate, in the end of July.
This is not necessarily an indictment of Swalwell; it’s just that it’s hard to get attention in this field. One common explanation for why long-shot candidates run would be to raise their profiles, and perhaps Swalwell failed, but based on a Morning Consult poll, 50 percent of voters had never heard of himwith only his House colleague Seth Moulton fared worse.
It speaks well of Swalwell he can read the writing on the wall when a lot of his rivals are still feigning illiteracy. While he may be the very first to leave the race, he’s very likely to be joined by other people before too long. Take John Hickenlooper, the former governor of Colorado, who recently fired a lot of his team and is attempting a relaunch. After initially appearing to blame his former aides, he told a reporter in Iowa that the actual issue was probably the candidate. “Surely the huge bulk of the issue with the campaign was me not being as great of a messenger like I want to be, but you can not switch or trade in a new offender,” he said. Which may be true of this Hickenlooper effort, but voters can change or trade in–not that many of them were in his corner at the first place.
Next, the new blood: Even as Swalwell prepares to exit, another Californian, the financier Tom Steyer, will enter the race, my colleague Edward-Isaac Dovere reports. I have written in this space multiple times that the field is finally at ability and will only shrink, and new candidates keep emerging. (Hello, Joe Sestak! Nice to see you, Steve Bullock!) Steyer is a fascinating case because he announced back in early January that he wouldn’t run. Yet despite seeing a field of coiffed white dudes don’t go anywhere, he’s seemingly tempted to try his hand anyway.

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